A log of what changed in the data with each monthly USDA release. Newest first. All figures in million tonnes (MMT); "2025/26" = old crop, "2026/27" = new-crop projection. Stocks-to-Use (S/U) = ending stocks ÷ domestic use. None of this is a recommendation — just the change in the USDA numbers.
June 11, 2026 — WASDE / Crop Production
Updated from May 12, 2026 · data still runs through the 2026/27 crop year
A quiet, tidy-up release: no new crop year, just 58 tracked revisions to the 2026/27 new crop and 2025/26 old crop. The pattern — coarse grains (corn, soy) loosened slightly on bigger old-crop carryout, while canola and barley tightened. Nothing here changes the big picture set in May.
Wheat
US new crop trimmed: 2026/27 production cut to 42.0 (from 42.5) with ending stocks down to 20.25. EU added 0.5 to both 2025/26 exports (31.0) and imports (7.0). World S/U essentially flat at 26.7%. Canada new crop unchanged at 35.0 prod / 28.0 exports / 4.63 carryout.
Read: neutral-to-supportive — slightly smaller US crop, global balance unchanged.
Canola
Quietly tighter. EU 2026/27 production cut 0.2 to 20.5 and EU carryout trimmed to 2.17. Canada new crop held at 22.0 prod / 8.2 exports, carryout 3.13. On old crop, US crush nudged up 0.02. World canola S/U the tightest of your crops at 10.6% (from 10.7%). Canola oil: EU 2025/26 domestic use up 0.2, world oil S/U 26/27 a snug 7.1%.
Read: friendly — still the tightest sheet you've got, edging tighter.
Soybeans & soy oil
Old-crop demand shuffle. US 2025/26 crush lifted 0.544 (to 72.1) and exports cut the same (to 41.1) — the bean is staying home to crush. Canada 2025/26 exports up 0.2 (to 5.3), carryout cut to 0.45. New crop steady: US 120.7 prod, world bean S/U 19.8%. Soy oil loosened: more US oil production from the bigger crush, world soy-oil S/U 26/27 eased to 7.4% (from 7.2%).
Read: mixed — beans firm on crush demand, soy oil a touch heavier.
Corn
Looser on old crop. US 2025/26 exports raised 0.635 (to 84.5) but offset by lower domestic use; ending stocks up slightly to 54.5. Canada carryout +0.1. World corn S/U eased to 20.0% (25/26) and 18.5% (26/27) — both up from last month. New crop US production unchanged at 406.3.
Read: mildly bearish — carryout creeping higher both years.
Barley
Tighter again. Canada 2025/26 ending stocks cut to 1.09 (exports +0.2 to 3.2), and the 2026/27 carryout trimmed to 0.97. EU 2025/26 exports jumped 0.8 (to 8.6), pulling EU stocks down 0.6. World barley S/U tightened to 11.2% (25/26).
Read: supportive — snug carryout, demand pulling stocks down.
May 12, 2026 — WASDE / Crop Production
Updated from April 9, 2026 · data now runs through the 2026/27 crop year
The May release added the first 2026/27 new-crop projections (21,276 new data points) and revised 2025/26 and history (7,128 cells changed). The theme across all your crops: 2026/27 balance sheets come in flat-to-tighter versus 2025/26 — corn and canola the tightest.
Wheat
New crop smaller and tighter. Canada 2026/27 production 35.0 (from 39.96), exports 28.0, ending stocks 4.63 (vs ~5.88). US 2026/27 production 42.5 (from 54.0), ending stocks 20.7 (from 25.4). World S/U eases 34.1% → 33.6%. On 2025/26, Canada exports were revised up 1.0 (to 30.0) and domestic use cut 1.0.
Read: supportive — smaller new crop, slowly tightening global stocks.
Canola
The standout. Canada 2026/27 production held flat at 22.0, but demand grows: crush 13.0 (from 12.3) and exports 8.2 (from 7.6). Flat supply + rising demand keeps ending stocks tight (~3.13) and world canola S/U snug at 12.7%. On the old crop, May lifted Canadian crush 0.3 (to 12.3) and trimmed ending stocks 0.1. Canola oil: Canada 2026/27 production 5.53 with exports bumped to 4.0.
Read: friendly — tightest balance sheet of your crops, demand still climbing.
Soybeans & soy oil
Big crop, big demand. US 2026/27 production a record 120.7 (from 116.0), yet ending stocks fall to 8.44 (from 9.25) as crush (74.8) and exports (44.4) rise. World soybean S/U eases 29.3% → 28.3%. Canada 2026/27 beans 7.3 (from 6.79). Soy oil is the tell: US 2026/27 domestic use jumps to 14.86 (biofuel) while exports collapse to 0.18 — the US keeps its oil at home.
Read: constructive despite the big crop — demand is the story, soy oil tightening on biofuel.
Corn
US 2026/27 production steps down to 406.3 (from 432.3), ending stocks fall to 49.7 (from 54.4). World corn S/U tightens the most of any crop: 23.0% → 21.2%. Canada 2026/27 production 14.5.
Read: supportive — the biggest year-over-year tightening in the bunch.
Barley
Canada tighter on both ends. The 2025/26 revision cut ending stocks from 1.62 to 1.29 (exports up 0.4 to 3.0). The 2026/27 new crop is smaller at 9.0 (from 9.73), ending stocks down to 1.17.
Read: tightening, snug carryout.